ABPW10 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/300300Z-300600ZDEC2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/300221ZDEC2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 16.6S 142.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.2S 147.3E, APPROXIMATELY 
92NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE CAIRNS RADAR 
DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING 
WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 292044Z 
SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES DISORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL BANDING 
WITH A WEAKLY-DEFINED LLCC. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER IMAGE REVEALS AN 
ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS. THIS SYSTEM IS A 
HYBRID SYSTEM WITH BOTH SUBTROPICAL AND TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS, 
AND IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF A SUBTROPICAL JET. UPPER-LEVEL FEATURE 
TRACK WINDS INDICATE A DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SYSTEM WITH 
IMPROVED EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS DECREASED FROM MODERATE TO LOW (10-15 KNOTS) 
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE AT 30-
31C. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINALLY-
FAVORABLE FOR ABOUT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD, WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR FURTHER CONSOLIDATION. AFTER THIS 
SHORT WINDOW, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER INCREASING 
VWS (30-40 KNOTS) WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER SST VALUES, AND IS FORECASTED 
TO TRANSITION TO A SUBTROPICAL GALE-FORCE LOW AFTER TAU 48. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS HIGH.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1)  TO 
HIGH.//
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