ABIO10 PGTW 282000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/282000Z-291800ZDEC2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 
12.1S 97.5E, APPROXIMATELY 37 NM EAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 281032Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE 
IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING 
CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWESTERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES. IN ADDITION, 
FORMATIVE BANDING APPEARS IN ALIGNMENT WITH THE CONVECTION. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (5-10KTS) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL 
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM REMAINS STATIONARY OFF 
THE WESTERN COAST OF SUMATRA WITH FAVORABLE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE 
NEXT 24-36HRS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1) TO 
LOW.//
NNNN