ABIO10 PGTW 270800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/270800Z-271800ZDEC2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 14.6S 131.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.9S 132.5E, APPROXIMATELY 
130 NM SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
AND A 270438Z AMSR2 89GHZ COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD 
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE 
BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLES. ANIMATED RADAR 
IMAGERY FROM THE WARRUWI RADAR INDICATES MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS 
OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THESE BANDS ARE 
ASSOCIATED WITH VIGOROUS, CONVERGENT WESTERLY TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY 
FLOW AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM TINDAL (14.52S 
132.38E), NEAR THE CENTER, REVEAL SOUTHEASTERLY GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS 
WITH SLP NEAR 999MB. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH 
ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. 
FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OVER LAND ARE THE PRIMARY HINDRANCE, HOWEVER, THE 
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EASTWARD OVER THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A 
TROPICAL CYCLONE POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE CAPE 
YORK PENINSULA NEAR TAU 48 (29/06Z). REINTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY 
AGAIN AFTER TAU 72 WHEN INVEST 97S TRACKS OVER THE CORAL SEA WITH 
UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES AIDING IN THE GRADUAL 
STRENGTHENING TREND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 
NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1) TO 
MEDIUM.//
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