ABIO10 PGTW 261800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/261800Z-271800ZDEC2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 12.9S 130.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.6S 131.2E, APPROXIMATELY 
133 NM SOUTH OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. LOCAL WEATHER OBSERVATIONS AND 
SATELLITE ANALYSIS PLACE THE CIRCULATION OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF 
THE TOP END REGION OF AUSTRALIA. ALBEIT OVER LAND, INVEST 97S IS IN 
A FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND 
LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE 
VORTEX WILL TRACK TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF RE-
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA IN APPROXIMATELY 48 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW. 
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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