ABIO10 PGTW 251800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/251800Z-261800ZDEC2021//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/252051ZDEC2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 11.5S 130.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9S 130.4E, APPROXIMATELY 37 
NM SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED 
CONVECTION ROTATING AROUND AN ASSESSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC). RADAR ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 97S HAS MADE LANDFALL 
ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF AUSTRALIA’S TOP END. ALBEIT OVER LAND, 
JTWC HAS DOWNGRADED THE INVEST TO A LOW. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT 
THE VORTEX WILL TRACK TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH THE SLIGHT 
POSSIBILITY OF RE-INTENSIFICATION OVER THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA IN 
APPROXIMATELY 48-72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED 
TO LOW. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 252100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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