ABIO10 PGTW 242130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/242130Z-251800ZDEC2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/242051DEC2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.	
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 10.8S 130.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.5S 130.5E, APPROXIMATELY 
62 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FRAGMENTED BUT FORMATIVE RAIN 
BANDS FEEDING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTION IN THE 
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 241323Z ASCAT PASS AND NEARBY SURFACE 
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE 20-25KT WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF 
THE LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW 
TO MODERATE (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (30-32C) 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT ON 
THE INTENSIFICATION OF 97S AND CONCUR THAT THE INVEST WILL TRACK 
OVER LAND IN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO 
HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 242100)FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1) TO 
HIGH.//
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