WTXS21 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
090 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.5S 130.5E TO 13.0S 131.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 241800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.5S 130.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 10.8S 130.3 E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.5S 130.5E, APPROXIMATELY 
62 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FRAGMENTED BUT FORMATIVE RAIN 
BANDS FEEDING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTION IN THE 
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  A 241323Z ASCAT PASS AND NEARBY SURFACE 
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE 20-25KT WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF 
THE LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW 
TO MODERATE (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (30-32C) 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT ON 
THE INTENSIFICATION OF 97S AND CONCUR THAT THE INVEST WILL TRACK 
OVER LAND IN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
252100Z.
//
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