ABIO10 PGTW 241800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/241800Z-251800ZDEC2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.	
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 11.1S 129.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.8S 130.3 E, APPROXIMATELY 
105 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FRAGMENTED BUT FORMATIVE RAIN 
BANDS FEEDING INTO A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC).  
A 241323Z ASCAT PASS AND NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE 20-
25KT WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG 
POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (10-15KT) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (30-32C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT 97S WILL 
INTENSIFY AND CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS; HOWEVER, 
THEY ARE SPLIT ON THE TRACK. CMC, GFS, ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLES HAVE 
A MORE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK INTO THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA (GOC), 
WHILE NAVGEM HAS A MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER AUSTRALIA 
JUST SOUTH OF THE GOC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 
NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
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