ABIO10 PGTW 241430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/241430Z-241800ZDEC2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 9.4S 130.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.1S 129.9E, APPROXIMATELY 101 
NM NORTH OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS FRAGMENTED BUT FORMATIVE RAIN BANDS FEEDING INTO A 
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC).  A 241235Z ASCAT PSS 
AND NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE 20-25KT WINDS ALONG THE 
NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG POLEWARD AND 
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (30-32C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL 
MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT 97S WILL INTENSIFY AND 
CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS; HOWEVER, THEY ARE SPLIT ON 
THE TRACK. CMC, GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES HAVE A MORE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD 
TRACK INTO THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA (GOC), WHILE NAVGEM AND ECMWF 
HAVE A MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER AUSTRALIA JUST SOUTH OF 
THE GOC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B(1) TO 
MEDIUM//
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