ABIO10 PGTW 240030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/240030Z-241800ZDEC2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.4S 
130.3E, APPROXIMATELY 186 NM NORTH OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED 
ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS BROAD FLARING 
CONVECTION SURROUNDING A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
(LLC). RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA SHOWS WINDS OF 20KT IN THE NORTHERN 
PERIPHERY OF A LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD 
OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND 
VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN 
STRONG AGREEMENT THAT 97S WILL INTENSIFY AND CONSOLIDATE OVER THE 
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS, HOWEVER THEY ARE SPLIT ON THE TRACK. CMC, 
GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES HAVE A MORE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK INTO 
THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA, WHILE NAVGEM AND ECMWF HAVE A MORE SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK OVER AUSTRALIA JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF 
CARPENTARIA.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1). AS A 
LOW. //
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