ABIO10 PGTW 201800 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/201800Z-211800ZDEC2021// RMKS/ 1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.8N 93.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.0N 96.0E, APPROXIMATELY 181 NM SOUTHWEST OF PHUKET, THAILAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION OVER A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 94B WILL TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST WHILE REMAINING BELOW WARNING CRITERIA AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MOUNTAINS OF SUMATRA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.// NNNN