ABIO10 PGTW 191800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/191800Z-201800ZDEC2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.8N 
93.7E, APPROXIMATELY 235 NM SOUTHWEST OF PHUKET, THAILAND. ANIMATED 
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELITE IMAGERY DEPICTS BROAD DEEP CONVECTION 
OVER A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA SHOWS 
25 TO 30 KT WINDS SURROUNDING A LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS 
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY 
HIGH (15-25KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT 
THAT 94B WILL HAVE A GENERAL EASTWARD TRACK INTO THE NORTH-WESTERN 
TIP OF SUMATRA.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 
TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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