ABIO10 PGTW 171800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
171800Z-181800ZDEC2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
4.4N 87.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.4N 88.4E APPROXIMATELY 512 NM EAST 
OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL TURNING WITH FLARING CONVECTION 
IS OVER A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 171554Z ASCAT-B PASS 
REVEALS PRIMARILY 15 KT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE 
AFOREMENTIONED LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES INVEST 94B IS 
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND 
HIGH (30-40 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, OFFSET BY FAVORABLE, WARM (29-
30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 
INVEST 94B WILL TRACK EASTWARD TOWARD MYANMAR OVER THE NEXT 24-48HRS 
WITH LITTLE TO NO DEVELOPMENT AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
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