ABPW10 PGTW 161830
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/REISSUED/161830Z-170600ZDEC2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/161351ZDEC2021//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/161721ZDEC2021//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 16DEC21 1200Z, TYPHOON 28W (RAI) WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 
124.3E, APPROXIMATELY 332 NM SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, AND 
HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 115 KNOTS GUSTING TO 140 
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 161500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 4.8N 107.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.4N 104.5E APPROXIMATELY 186 
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SINGAPORE. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A MUDDLED MESS OF THUNDERSTORMS ABOVE AND 
EAST OF THE MALAY PENINSULA. EASTERN SHEAR FROM THE OUTFLOW OF 28W 
(TYPHOON RAI) IS APPLYING SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE TO THE CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED WITH 97W, PARTIALLY EXPOSING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC). HOWEVER, A 161500Z SHIP OBSERVATION JUST SOUTH OF THE 
LLCC REPORTED 23KTS FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. ANALYSIS INDICATES THE 
ENVIRONMENT IS OVERALL FAVORABLE WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
AND FLOURISHING POLEWARD OUTFLOW, OFFSET BY THE AFOREMENTIONED 
MODERATE SHEAR (15-20 KTS). DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE 97W WILL TRACK 
WEST OVER THE MALAYAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE STRAIT OF MALACCA. AS 
IT STANDS, INTENSIFICATION WILL BE MINIMAL BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES 
OVER LAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN 1.B.(1) TO HIGH.//
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