ABPW10 PGTW 160600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/160600Z-170600ZDEC2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/160152ZDEC2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 16DEC21 0000Z, SUPER TYPHOON 28W (RAI) WAS LOCATED NEAR 
9.7N 127.5E, APPROXIMATELY 481 NM SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, 
AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 140 KNOTS GUSTING 
TO 170 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 160300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 4.8N 107.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.4N 105.0E, APPROXIMATELY 203 
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SINGAPORE. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A PARTIAL 152347Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE 
IMAGE DEPICT FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST OF A 
FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLC). A 160243Z PARTIAL 
ASCAT-C IMAGE SHOWS 20KT WIND BARBS IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT 
WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WARM (27-28C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE 
IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 97W WILL PERSIST AND SLOWLY TRACK WESTWARD 
OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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