ABPW10 PGTW 151830
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/151830Z-160600ZDEC2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/151351ZDEC2021//
NARR/REFS A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 15DEC21 1200Z, TYPHOON 28W (RAI) WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 
130.0E, APPROXIMATELY 613 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, 
AND HAD TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 80 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 100 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 151500) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 5.9N 106.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.8N 107.1E, APPROXIMATELY 357 
NM SOUTH OF HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A PARTIAL 151106Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE 
IMAGE DEPICT FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST OF A 
FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WARM (27-28C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY 
MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN 
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 97W WILL PERSIST AND SLOWLY TRACK WESTWARD 
OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO 
MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1) TO 
MEDIUM.//
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