ABPW10 PGTW 150600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/150600Z-160600ZDEC2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/150152ZDEC2021//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/141951ZDEC2021//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 15DEC21 0000Z, TYPHOON 28W (RAI) WAS LOCATED NEAR 8.9N 
132.3E, APPROXIMATELY 157 NM NORTHWEST OF KOROR, AND HAD TRACKED 
WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS GUSTING TO 80 KNOTS. SEE 
REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 150300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.9N 
106.9E, APPROXIMATELY 292 NM NORTH OF HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM. ANIMATED 
ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A PARTIAL, 
150000Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT FLARING CONVECTIVE BANDS 
WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLC). 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT 
WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WARM (27-28C) SEA SURFACE TEMPURATURES, 
OFFSET BY LOW-MODERATE (10-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS 
ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 97W WILL PERSIST AND SLOWLY TRACK 
WESTWARD OVER THE 72 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 14DEC21 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (RUBY) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 24.3S 170.5E, APPROXIMATELY 276 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, 
NEW CALEDONIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 
KNOTS GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPS31 PGTW 142100) FOR THE 
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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