ABPW10 PGTW 120600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/120600Z-130600ZDEC2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/120151ZDEC2021//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/120251ZDEC2021//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 5.6N 143.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.7N 143.2E, APPROXIMATELY 376 
NM SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH EXPANSIVE, FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. A 
120348Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES FORMATIVE BANDING 
WRAPPING INTO A RAGGED BUT DEFINED LLCC. A RECENT PARTIAL 112352Z 
ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A 20-25 KNOT BAND OF WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE 
FORMATIVE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH 
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C), WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (05-
10 KTS) AND EXPANDING RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT 
THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND TRACK WESTWARD TO 
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF B (WTPN21 PGTW 120300) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 12DEC21 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (THREE) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 14.1S 157.1E, APPROXIMATELY 702 NM NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW 
CALEDONIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 120300) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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