ABPW10 PGTW 120330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/120330Z-120600ZDEC2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/120151ZDEC2021//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/120251ZDEC2021//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 5.2N 144.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.6N 143.7E APPROXIMATELY 407NM 
SOUTEAST FROM YAP. A LONGITUDINAL AND CHAOTIC DUAL-CLUSTER OF 
PERSISTENT CONVECTION HAS STARTED TURNING WITH A POORLY DEFINED LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). CURRENT ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS 
TILTED WITH HEIGHT TO THE NORTH ALONG THE MOST POTENT CONVECTION 
WHILE THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN AMBIGUOUS AND ELONGATED. A RECENT 
PARTIAL 112352Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A 20-25 KNOT BAND OF WINDS TO THE 
NORTHWEST OF THE POORLY DEFINED LLC. THE ENVIRONMENTAL OUTLOOK FOR 
96W IS FULL OF PROMISE WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C), 
WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (05-10 KTS) AND BURGEONING RADIAL OUTFLOW. 
THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE -WITH ECMWF JUMPING ON THE DEVELOPMENT 
BANDWAGON- THAT THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND 
TRACK WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF B 
(WTPN21 PGTW 120300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 12DEC21 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (THREE) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 14.1S 157.1E, APPROXIMATELY 702 NM NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW 
CALEDONIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 120300) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) NO OTHER SUPSECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN 1.B.(1) TO HIGH.//
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