WTPN21 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
135 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 5.6N 143.7E TO 8.1N 138.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 121200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 5.6N 143.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 5.2 144.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.6 143.7E APPROXIMATELY 407NM 
FROM YAP. A LONGITUDINAL AND CHAOTIC DUAL-CLUSTER OF PERSISTENT 
CONVECTION HAS STARTED TURNING WITH A POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION (LLC). CURRENT ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS TILTED 
WITH HEIGHT TO THE NORTH ALONG THE MOST POTENT CONVECTION WHILE THE 
LOW LEVELS REMAIN AMBIGUOUS AND ELONGATED. A RECENT PARTIAL 112352Z 
ASCAT PASS SHOWS A 20-25 KNOT BAND OF WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE 
POORLY DEFINED LLC. THE ENVIRONMENTAL OUTLOOK FOR 96W IS FULL OF 
PROMISE WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C), WEAK VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (05-10 KTS) AND BURGEONING RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE GLOBAL 
MODELS AGREE -WITH ECMWF JUMPING ON THE DEVELOPMENT BANDWAGON- THAT 
THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND TRACK WEST.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
130300Z.
//
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