ABPW10 PGTW 112230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/112230Z-120600ZDEC2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/111951ZDEC2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST ) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
5.0N 145.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR N E, APPROXIMATELY  NM NORTH OF . A 
110153Z ASCAT-B IMAGE REVEALS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH A WAVE 
EXTENDING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. THIS IMAGE ALSO INDICATES A PATCH OF 
20-25KT WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WAVE NEAR 7.0N. 
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A BROAD LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION (LLC) ESTABLISHED WITHIN AN AREA OF SURFACE TROUGHING 
WITH DISORGANIZED, YET PERSISTENT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
WAVE FEATURE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS 
SUPPORTED BY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C), LOW (10-15KTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN 
AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AS IT TRACKS 
WESTNORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48HRS WITH GFS BEING THE MOST 
AGGRESSIVE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 
15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 11DEC21 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (THREE) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 12.8S 156.9E, APPROXIMATELY 767 NM NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW 
CALEDONIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 
KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 112100) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 10.7S 156.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.2S 157.1E, APPROXIMATELY  
NM NORTH OF . SEE PARA. 2.A.(1).
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN 2.B.(1) TO WARNING 
STATUS.//
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