ABPW10 PGTW 110600 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND /SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/110600Z-120600ZDEC2021// RMKS/ 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.0N 145.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.6N 145.6E, APPROXIMATELY 530 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP. A 110153Z ASCAT-B IMAGE REVEALS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH A WAVE EXTENDING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. THIS IMAGE ALSO INDICATES A PATCH OF 20-25KT WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WAVE NEAR 7.0N. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) ESTABLISHED WITHIN AN AREA OF SURFACE TROUGHING WITH DISORGANIZED, YET PERSISTENT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE FEATURE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS SUPPORTED BY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C), LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AS IT TRACKS WEST- NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48HRS WITH GFS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.4S 155.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.7S 156.1E, APPROXIMATELY 242 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONIARA, FSM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED, DISORGANIZED LLC WITH FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. AN 110554Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS FORMATIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE WITH WEAK BANDING ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER, A 102329Z ASCAT-C IMAGE REVEALS AN ASYMMETRIC WIND STRUCTURE WITH STRONGER WINDS (25-30KT) CONFINED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS GENERALLY FAVORABLE WITH VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31C), AND MODERATE (20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 93P WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE STRENGTHENING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.// NNNN