ABPW10 PGTW 110230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/110230Z-110600ZDEC2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/102121ZDEC2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 5N 149.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.0N 145.9E, APPROXIMATELY 385 NM 
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK, FSM. THE POSITION WAS MOVED APPROXIMATELY 
200 NM TO THE WEST BASED ON ANALYSIS OF ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A RECENT ASCAT PASS. THESE DATA REVEAL A 
BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) BECOMING ESTABLISHED WITHIN AN 
AREA OF SURFACE TROUGHING  WITH DISORGANIZED, YET PERSISTENT 
CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES THAT THE CONDITIONS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE  
DEVELOPMENT ARE FAVORABLE SUPPORTED BY VERY WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (29-30C), LOW TO MODERATE (10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR, AND FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT 
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 36 
TO 48HRS WITH GFS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. IN ADDITION, THE SYSTEM 
IS TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO 
MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 10.4S 155.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.9S 155.2E, APPROXIMATELY 285 
NM WEST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS. SOUTHEAST OF THE SOLOMON SEA, 
THE FIRST FEW FRAMES OF ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS AN AREA OF INTENSE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM 
ACTIVITY WITH A NUMBER OF MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS PRESENT.  A LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OBSERVED AT 101800Z PROVIDES GOOD 
CONFIDENCE IN POSITIONING DESPITE THE DISORGANIZED APPEARANCE. A 
101953Z SSMIS 91H MICROWAVE PASS DEPICTS THE LOW LEVEL WEAK BANDING, 
WITH MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHEARED TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT 
IS FAVORABLE. 93P IS CURRENTLY QUASI-STATIONARY AND HUNKERING OVER 
AN AREA OF VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 C). MODERATE 
(20-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS CURRENTLY IMPEDING THE 
CONSOLIDATION OF THE VORTEX. HOWEVER, ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS 
PROVIDING EXCELLENT EXHAUST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A 
SLIGHT RELAXATION OF THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL ALLOW 93P TO 
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AND TRACK TO 
THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 
NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1) TO 
MEDIUM.//
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