WTPS21 PGTW 102130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93P) REISSUED//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/092121ZDEC2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
085 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.8S 154.8E TO 12.5S 156.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 101800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.4S 155.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 10.4S 155.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.9S 155.2E, APPROXIMATELY 
284NM WEST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS. SOUTHEAST OF THE SOLOMON 
SEA, THE FIRST FEW FRAMES OF ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS AN AREA OF INTENSE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM 
ACTIVITY WITH A NUMBER OF MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS PRESENT.  A LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OBSERVED AT 101800Z PROVIDES GOOD 
CONFIDENCE IN POSITIONING DESPITE THE DISORGANIZED APPEARANCE. A 
101953Z SSMIS 91H MICROWAVE PASS DEPICTS THE LOW LEVEL WEAK BANDING, 
WITH MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHEARED TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT 
IS FAVORABLE. 93P IS CURRENTLY QUASI-STATIONARY AND HUNKERING OVER 
AN AREA OF VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 C). MODERATE 
(20-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS CURRENTLY IMPEDING THE 
CONSOLIDATION OF THE VORTEX. HOWEVER, ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS 
PROVIDING EXCELLENT EXHAUST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A 
SLIGHT RELAXATION OF THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL ALLOW 93P TO 
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AND TRACK TO 
THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 
NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES 
REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
112130Z.
//
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