ABPW10 PGTW 100600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/100600Z-110600ZDEC2021//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 4.6N 142.4E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 4.6N 142.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.7N 149.8E, APPROXIMATELY 156 
NM SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK . ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY 
(MSI) DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION SURROUNDING A WEAK BROAD LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW TO 
MODERATE (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96W 
WILL FOLLOW A WESTWARD TRACK AS IT INTENSIFIES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 10.4S 155.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.5S 155.7E, APPROXIMATELY  
31 NM EAST OF PORT MORESBY. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(MSI) AND A 091729Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. 
IN ADDITION, FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPS INTO THE CENTER TO THE WEST AND 
SOUTH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WEAK (05-10KTS) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL 
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON THAT 93P WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST AND 
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT 
24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 
25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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