ABPW10 PGTW 092200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/092200Z-100600ZDEC2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/092121ZDEC2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 4.6N 142.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.4N 144.2E, APPROXIMATELY 440 
NM SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) 
DEPICTS A WEAK BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND 
WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT THAT 95W WILL FOLLOW A WESTWARD TRACK AS IT INTENSIFIES.  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 10.4S 155.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.6S 155.9E, APPROXIMATELY 
250 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONIARA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 091729Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTHERN 
PERIPHERY. IN ADDITION, FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPS INTO THE CENTER TO 
THE WEST AND SOUTH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WEAK (05-
10KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON THAT 93P WILL TRACK 
EAST-SOUTHEAST AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 
STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO 
HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 092130) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1). TO 
HIGH. //
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