WTPS21 PGTW 092130 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93P)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.2S 155.8E TO 12.3S 157.0E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 091800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.6S 155.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.4S 155.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.6S 155.9E, APPROXIMATELY 250NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 091729Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. IN ADDITION, FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPS INTO THE CENTER TO THE WEST AND SOUTH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WEAK (05-10KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON THAT 93P WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 102130Z. // NNNN