ABPW10 PGTW 090600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/090600Z-100600ZDEC2021//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.6N 
142.4E, APPROXIMATELY 350 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED 
ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) FLARING CONVECTION 
WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE CIRCULATION IS IN AN AREA OF MARGINALLY 
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS DEFINED BY FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW TO 
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, OFFSET BY WARM SST (30-31C). GLOBAL 
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 95W WILL TRACK WESTWARD AND 
DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS HOWEVER, THE MODELS DISAGREE ON 
THE TIME 95W WILL REACH TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH WITH GFS 
PRESENTING THE MOST AGRESSIVE FORECAST.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 9.7S 156.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4S 155.0E, APPROXIMATELY 468 
NM EAST OF PORT MORESBY, PAPUA NEW GUINEA. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 090312Z AMSR2 89GHZ 
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT DISORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO 
A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS 
THAT THE CIRCULATION IS IN AN AREA OF MARGINALLY FAVORABLE 
DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY WARM SST (30-31C) AND LOW TO MODERATE 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE OUTFLOW IS NOTABLE WITH ENHANCED POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW FEEDING INTO THE JET TO THE SOUTH. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN 
AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL GENERALLY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AND 
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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