ABIO10 PGTW 071800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEANS/071800Z-081800ZDEC2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/062221ZDEC2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 02S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 9.8S 105.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.5S 106.5E, APPROXIMATELY 
80NM SOUTHEAST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. A SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE PASS 
DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE WELL 
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). IN ADDITION, ANIMATED 
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) IMAGERY SIMILARLY SHOWS A STRONG CONVECTIVE 
CENTER SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW 
TO MODERATE (10-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (27-29C) AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL 
DETERMINISTIC MODELS, TO INCLUDE GFS, NAVGEM, AND ECMWF, INDICATE 
MARGINAL DEVELOPMENT PAST THE 35KT WARNING THRESHOLD. THE 
CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWEST ALONG NORTHWEST 
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL  
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A  SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
NNNN