WTXS21 PGTW 062230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 02S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
115 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.6S 105.5E TO 11.8S 106.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 062200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.8S 105.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 02S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 9.1S 105.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.8S 105.7E, APPROXIMATELY 39NM 
NORTH OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. AFTER BOOMERANGING AROUND THE INDIAN 
OCEAN, THE REMNANTS OF 02S (TERATIA) HAVE MADE A COMEBACK. AN AMSR2 
89HZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICTS A FLOURISHING CONVECTIVE CENTER OVER A 
WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY TELLS A SIMILAR STORY WITH THE BULK OF THE FLARING 
CONVECTION SHEARED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLC. OVERALL THE 
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW 
TO MODERATE (10-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (28-30 C) AND FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE GLOBAL MODELS, 
SPECIFICALLY NAVGEM AND GFS, CALL FOR MODEST INTENSIFICATION TO THE 
35KT WARNING THRESHOLD, BUT DO NOT INTENSIFY IT MUCH FURTHER. 
OVERALL THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH 
MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT BEYOND WARNING CRITERIA, METAPHORICALLY 
SPEAKING,IT'S A FLASH IN A PAN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
072230Z.
//
NNNN