ABIO10 PGTW 061800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/061800Z-071800ZDEC2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TC 02S) PREVIOUSLY 
LOCATED NEAR 8.3S 100.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.2S 105.0E, 
APPROXIMATELY 83 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. 
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE (EIR) IMAGERY DEPICTS 
DEEP CONVECTION FLARING NEAR THE ASSESSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC). A 061122Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED 
LOW LEVEL CENTER DISPLACED SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE FLARING CONVECTION. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (28-29C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30KT) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT THAT THE 
REMNANTS OF TC 02S WILL TRACK EASTWARD BEFORE RECURVING TO THE 
SOUTHWEST. DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUCH AS NAVGEM, GFS AND CMC, ALONG 
WITH A HANDFUL OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM BOTH ECMWF AND GFS, AGREE 
THAT THE REMNANTS OF TC 02S MAY RE-INTENSIFY AFTER MAKING THE SWING 
TO THE SOUTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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