ABIO10 PGTW 051800 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/051800Z-061800ZDEC2021// RMKS/ 1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TC 02S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.4S 98.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.3S 100.3E, APPROXIMATELY 312 NM NORTHEAST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DISORGANIZED CONVECTION OBSCURING A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA INDICATES A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH SMALL POCKETS OF HIGHER WINDS (25-30 KTS) IN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLES, WHICH ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY VERY HIGH (30-40KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT THAT THE REMNANTS OF TC 02S WILL TRACK EASTWARD BEFORE RECURVING TO THE SOUTHWEST. DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUCH AS NAVGEM, GFS AND CFC, ALONG WITH A HANDFUL OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM BOTH ECMWF AND GFS, AGREE THAT THE REMNANTS OF TC 02S MAY RE-INTENSIFY AFTER MAKING THE SWING TO THE SOUTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.// NNNN