ABIO10 PGTW 050200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/050200Z-051800ZDEC2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/040751ZDEC2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 04DEC21 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (JAWAD) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 16.1N 84.9E, APPROXIMATELY 437 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, 
INDIA, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTIO31 PGTW 040900) FOR THE FINAL 
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TC 02S) HAS PERSISTED 
NEAR 7.4S 98.3E, APPROXIMATELY 297 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF COCOS 
ISLANDS. A RECENT PARTIAL SCATTEROMETRY PASS REVEAL 25 KNOT WINDS IN 
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OFFSET 
BY VERY HIGH (30-40KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN 
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE 
NEXT 48-72 HOURS BEFORE RECURVING TO A MORE WESTWARD TRACK, HOWEVER 
THEY ARE SPLIT ON INTENSIFICATION WITH NAVGEM, GFS AND CFC BEING THE 
MOST AGGRESSIVE.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1). AS A 
LOW. //
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