ABIO10 PGTW 021800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/021800Z-031800ZDEC2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) INVEST 94W IS TILTED WITH HEIGHT. THE SYSTEM’S TENACIOUS 
CONVECTION IS DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLC) INHIBITING ITS CONSOLIDATION AS PORTRAYED 
IN ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS IS ADDITIONALLY 
SUPPORTED BY A 1221Z SSMIS 91HZ MICROWAVE PASS WHICH REVEALS A BROAD 
LLC TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS IS FAVORABLE FOR TC DEVELOPMENT DESPITE THE 
CIRCULATION CONTINUING TO RESIDE IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (20 KT) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE DYNAMIC MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO 
PROCRASTINATE AND KICK THE PROVERBIAL CAN DOWN THE ROAD AS 94W 
TRACKS WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD INDIA, GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS HIGH.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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