ABIO10 PGTW 011800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/011800Z-021800ZDEC2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/010751ZDEC2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 9.3N 101.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.8N 92.7E, APPROXIMATELY 172 
NM SOUTH OF PORT BLAIR.ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 011234Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT DEEP 
FLARING CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE NORTHWEST OF A POORLY 
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 
THE SYSTEM IS IN A OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY 
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE 
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 94W WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT 
TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE BAY OF BENGAL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 01DEC21 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 9.2S 102.3E, APPROXIMATELY 366 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF COCOS 
ISLANDS, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 010900) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 7.2S 102.6E IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. 
SEE PARA. 2.A.(1) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
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