ABIO10 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/010900Z-011800ZDEC2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/010751ZDEC2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 9.3N 101.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.6N 92.6E, APPROXIMATELY 341 
NM WEST OF PHUKET, THAILAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 010724Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE 
DEPICTS DEEP FLARING CONVECTION OBSCURING A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG OUTFLOW ALOFT, MODERATE (15-
20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 94W 
WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE 
BAY OF BENGAL BEFORE RECURVING TO THE NORTH NEAR THE EASTERN COAST 
OF INDIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 01DEC21 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 9.2S 102.3E, APPROXIMATELY 366 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF COCOS 
ISLANDS, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 010900) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 7.2S 102.6E IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. 
SEE PARA. 2.A.(1) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.A.(1) TO 
WARNING STATUS.//
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