ABIO10 PGTW 302300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/302300ZNOV2021-011800ZDEC2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/302251ZNOV2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 9.3N 101.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 98.1E,
APPROXIMATELY 131 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PHUKET, THAILAND.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP
FLARING CONVECTION OBSCURING A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT SYSTEM IS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG OUTFLOW
ALOFT, MODERATE (20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY
WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 94W WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE BAY OF
BENGAL BEFORE RECURVING TO THE NORTH NEAR THE EASTERN
COAST OF INDIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 7.2S 102.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.8S 102.9E, APPROXIMATELY 
252NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF JAKARTA, INDONESIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS INCREASING ORGANIZATION OF THE 
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC).  A 
301902Z ASMR2 SERIES SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING MOST OF THE 
LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW 
ALOFT, MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT 92S WILL TRACK SOUTH 
SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER, THEY ARE SPLIT ON 
INTENSIFICATION WITH ONLY GFS REACHING WARNING CRITERIA. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 302300) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1) TO 
HIGH.//
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