WTXS21 PGTW 302300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
070 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.7S 102.8E TO 9.6S 102.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 302230Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 7.8S 102.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 7.2S 102.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.8S 102.9E, APPROXIMATELY 
252NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF JAKARTA, INDONESIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS INCREASING ORGANIZATION OF THE 
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC).  A 
301902Z ASMR2 SERIES SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING MOST OF THE 
LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW 
ALOFT, MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT 92S WILL TRACK SOUTH 
SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER, THEY ARE SPLIT ON 
INTENSIFICATION WITH ONLY GFS REACHING WARNING CRITERIA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
012300Z.
//
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