ABIO10 PGTW 301800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/301800ZNOV2021-011800ZDEC2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.3N 101.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 98.1E, APPROXIMATELY 131 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PHUKET THAILAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP FLARING CONVECTION OBSCURING A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.  ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG OUTFLOW ALOFT, MODERATE (20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 94W WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE BAY OF BENGAL BEFORE RECURVING TO THE NORTH NEAR THE EASTERN COAST OF INDIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST  92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.1S 101.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.2S 102.6E, APPROXIMATELY 256 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF JAKARTA, INDONISIA. ANIMATED ENHANCE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP BROAD CONVECTION OBSCURING A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. A RECENT 301414Z ASCAT-A PASS SHOWS 25 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH SOME 30 KNOT WINDS CLOSER TO THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (10-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92S WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, HOWEVER THEY ARE SPLIT ON INTENSIFICATION WITH ONLY GFS REACHING WARNING CRITERIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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