ABPW10 PGTW 300600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/300600ZNOV2021-010600ZDEC2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/300151ZNOV2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 30NOV21 0000Z, TROPICAL STORM 27W (TWENTYSEVEN) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 139.1E, APPROXIMATELY 323 NM WEST OF NAVSTA GUAM, 
AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING 
TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 300300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 7.9N 106.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.3N 101.0E, APPROXIMATELY 179 
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PHUKET, THAILAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 300222Z PARTIAL ASCAT 
METOP-B PASS REVEALS A FAIRLY DISORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION — 
WITH A 292358Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTING MOST OF THE 
CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST.  ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES THAT INVEST 94W IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT 
DEFINED BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES, BUT OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25KT) VWS. GLOBAL 
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT INVEST 94W WILL TRACK OVER THAILAND AND 
DECREASE IN INTENSITY BUT WILL REORGANIZE IN THE ANDAMAN SEA BY TAU 
48. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND 
INTENSIFY IN THE BAY OF BENGAL, AND THEN RECURVE TO THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST TRACKING NEAR THE EASTERN COAST OF INDIA. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN