ABIO10 PGTW 300100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/300100ZNOV2021-301800ZDEC2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.1S 
101.8E, APPROXIMATELY 256 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF JAKARTA, INDONESIA. 
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS BROAD CONVECTION 
SURROUNDING A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 
RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWS A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 20 KNOT 
WINDS OFFSET TO THE NORTH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE 
SYSTEM IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH 
STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY HIGH (25-30KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL 
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92S WILL CONSOLIDATE AND TRACK 
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, WITH GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE 
BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1). AS A 
LOW. //
NNNN