ABPW10 PGTW 290600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/290600Z-300600ZNOV2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/290552ZNOV2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 10.6N 145.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 142.0E, APPROXIMATELY 
181 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY-DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH 
LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED CENTER, AND DEEP 
CONVECTION FLARING OVER THE LLC. A 290420Z PARTIAL AMSR2 89GHZ COLOR 
COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS FORMATIVE, FRAGMENTED LOW-LEVEL 
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WEAKLY DEFINED LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-
15KTS) VWS, WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND GOOD POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW. OVER THE NEXT ONE TO TWO DAYS, GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE 
STEADY DEVELOPMENT AND CONSOLIDATION WITH A GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. 
REFER TO REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 290600) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 6.8N 108.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.9N 106.0E, APPROXIMATELY 171 
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A BROAD BUT SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LLC. A 
290012Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE 
BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 290240Z ASCAT-B IMAGE SHOWS 
A DEFINED, ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 20-25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE 
EASTERN QUADRANT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS 
IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT DEFINED BY LOW TO MODERATE VWS 
AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THE BULK OF THE GLOBAL 
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE WESTWARD TRACK OF 94W 
ACROSS THE STRAIT OF MALACCA INTO THE BAY OF BENGAL WITH SIGNIFICANT 
DEVELOPMENT IN THE ANDAMAN SEA. THE ECMWF DETERMINISTIC MODEL, 
HOWEVER, INDICATES SLOWER DEVELOPMENT AND A WEAKER SYSTEM. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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