ABPW10 PGTW 270600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/270600Z-280600ZNOV2021//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 8.3N 156.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.3N 152.1E, APPROXIMATELY 11 
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
AND A 270253Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW DISORGANIZED, FLARING 
CONVECTION AND SUPPORT THE ASSESSMENT OF 93W AS A TROPICAL WAVE WITH 
NO DISCRETE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 270000Z ASCAT-B 
IMAGE REVEALS 15-20KT EASTERLIES OFFSET TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. 
ADDITIONALLY, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CHUUK INDICATE NORTHERLY 
WINDS AT 5-10KTS WITH SLP AT 1005 MB. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE TO 
HIGH (20-25KTS) VWS OFFSET BY WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 93W WILL TRACK 
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH SLOW 
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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