ABIO10 PGTW 251800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/251800Z-261800ZNOV2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 10.9S 92.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.1S 92.3E, APPROXIMATELY 296 
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 251557Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS 
DEPICT FLARING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-20KT) VWS, 
WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPURATURES, OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY A 
DECREASED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND WILL MARGINALLY 
DEVELOP WITH GFS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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