ABIO10 PGTW 241800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/241800Z-251800ZNOV2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/241351ZNOV2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 24NOV21 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (PADDY) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 14.5S 105.8E, APPROXIMATELY 236 NM SOUTH OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND, 
AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 
KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 241500) FOR THE 
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 10.9S 92.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.6S 92.9E, APPROXIMATELY 255 
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 241221Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE 
DEPICT SCATTERED FLARING CONVECTION AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF 
A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINAL 
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WARM SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-29C) OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (20-25KTS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE 
SYSTEM WILL TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND WILL MARGINALLY DEVELOP 
WITH GFS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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