ABIO10 PGTW 241530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/241530Z-241800ZNOV2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/241351ZNOV2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 24NOV21 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (PADDY) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 14.5S 105.8E, APPROXIMATELY 236 NM SOUTH OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND, 
AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 
KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 241500) FOR THE 
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 
10.9S 92.1E, APPROXIMATELY 291 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS 
ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 232232Z 
SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICT FLARING CONVECTION AROUND THE SOUTHERN 
PERIPHERY OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE 
ALOFT AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-29C) OFFSET BY MODERATE 
TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-25KTS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND WILL 
MARGINALLY DEVELOP WITH GFS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ISSUED FINAL WARNING FOR TC 01S.//
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