ABIO10 PGTW 240230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/240230Z-241800ZNOV2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR 
HI/231951ZNOV2021//AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. :
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. :
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 23NOV21 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (PADDY) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 13.9S 106.8E, APPROXIMATELY 215 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHRISTMAS 
ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 
KNOTS GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 232100) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 
10.9S 92.1E, APPROXIMATELY 291 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS.  
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 232232Z SSMIS 
91GHZ IMAGE DEPICT FLARING CONVECTION AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY 
OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATE MARGINAL 
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WARM SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-29C) OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (15-25KTS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE 
SYSTEM WILL TRACK WEST-SOUTHWEST AND WILL MARGINALLY DEVELOP WITH 
GFS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B(1) TO LOW.//
NNNN