ABIO10 PGTW 220400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/220400Z-221800ZNOV2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/220351ZNOV2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// 
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 
12.7S 108.2E, APPROXIMATELY 200 NM SOUTHEAST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. 
ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 
220153Z ASCAT METOP-B PASS DEPICT A WELL STRUCTURED SYSTEM WITH 
CONVECTION AND EMBEDDED 30-35KT WINDS WRAPPING INTO A 
CONSOLIDATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
SHOWS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW DUE TO 
THE DISTURBANCE BEING NEAR THE DIVERGENT QUADRANT OF A COL REGION, 
LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL 
REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 35KTS AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 96. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 220400) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1). AS HIGH.//
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