ABIO10 PGTW 181800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/181800Z-191800ZNOV2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/181752ZNOV2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 16.0N 70.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 68.7E, APPROXIMATELY 301 
NM SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 181350Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT 
FRAGMENTED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A POORLY ORGANIZED LLC WITH MOST OF 
THE CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO 
MODERATE (10 TO 20 KTS) VWS, MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-
29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONALLY, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IN 
THE MID-TO-UPPER LEVELS IS HINDERING DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE 
IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93A WILL SEE MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT AS IT 
TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 10.6N 83.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 80.4E, APPROXIMATELY 45 
NM SOUTH OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 181056Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A FULLY-
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED 
WEST OF THE LLC DUE TO PERSISTENT MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25 KNOTS) 
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CHENNAI 
INDICATE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SUSTAINED WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH SLP 
NEAR 1003MB. INVEST 92B IS MAKING LANDFALL AND GLOBAL MODELS 
INDICATE THE SYSTEM CENTER WILL TRACK OVER LAND WITHIN THE NEXT SIX 
HOURS AND CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH STEADY 
WEAKENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW. SEE REF A (WTIO21 
PGTW 181800) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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