ABIO10 PGTW 172100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN REISSUED/172100Z-181800ZNOV2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/172021ZNOV2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 14.8N 69.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 70.1E, APPROXIMATELY 237 
NM SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 171403Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT 
FRAGMENTED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A POORLY ORGANIZED LLC WITH MOST OF 
THE CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO 
MODERATE (10 TO 20 KTS) VWS, VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-
29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONALLY, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IN 
THE MID-TO-UPPER LEVELS IS HINDERING DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE 
IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93A WILL SEE MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT AS IT 
TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 10.6N 83.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 83.5E, APPROXIMATELY 242 
NM SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 171614Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A 
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE 
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A DISTINCT LLCC. A 171630Z ASCAT-B 
IMAGE INDICATES AN ELONGATED, DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 25-30 KNOT 
WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND 20-25 KTS OVER THE EASTERN 
SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE WITH 
MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET SOMEWHAT 
BY STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM 
APPROACHES THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF INDIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 172030) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(2) TO 
HIGH.//
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